Russian fuel flows by way of Ukraine are set to cease on Wednesday when a transit deal between the 2 international locations expires within the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion.
The pipeline was one of many final two routes nonetheless carrying Russian fuel to Europe almost three years into the full-scale war. EU international locations will lose about 5 per cent of fuel imports in the course of winter.
Whereas merchants had lengthy anticipated flows to cease, the top of the pipeline route by way of Ukraine will have an effect on Europe’s fuel steadiness at a time when demand for heating is excessive. Slovakia is the nation most affected.
“Whereas one would assume that dropping these volumes [is] priced in, a powerful upward worth response initially isn’t out of the query,” stated Aldo Spanjer, senior commodities strategist at BNP Paribas.
The deal to permit Russian fuel to go by way of Ukraine was agreed on the finish of 2019, signed a day earlier than the earlier 10-year contract between the nationwide fuel firms was set to run out. On the time, the European Fee strongly promoted the deal.
After Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, nonetheless, the fee inspired member states to hunt various provides because the bloc moved to wean itself off Russian fossil gas imports. The Moscow-friendly governments of Hungary and Slovakia have resisted that shift and have sought to increase the deal past January 1.
The Ukrainian authorities had telegraphed months upfront that it was unwilling to barter an extension to the deal, because it wished to deprive the Kremlin of its earnings from fuel exports. Ending the flows would end in a $6.5bn loss for Russia, until it may redirect them, in keeping with the Brussels-based think-tank, Bruegel.
However it might even be a monetary blow to Ukraine, which earned about $1bn a 12 months in fuel transit charges, although solely a couple of fifth of that was gross income. Analysts have instructed that Ukraine’s huge fuel pipeline infrastructure may face rising Russian assault, if there was no Russian fuel flowing by way of it.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Moscow on December 22 to discuss the gas transit contract. He blasted Ukraine’s intransigence on the deal, asking whether or not the nation had “the correct to wreck the financial nationwide pursuits of an [EU] member state”.
Fico stated on Fb shortly earlier than the deal’s expiry that “different fuel transit options than Russian fuel had been introduced to Ukrainian companions, however these had been additionally rejected by the Ukrainian president”. The Slovak prime minister has additionally threatened to chop off back-up electrical energy provides from Slovakia to Ukraine as retaliation.
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has likewise sought to discover a workaround to permit Russian fuel imports through Ukraine. His authorities has additionally turned to the final remaining pipeline delivery Russian fuel through Turkey and to neighbouring Romania to enhance provides.
Austria, which nonetheless imported Russian fuel all through 2024, has shifted to various sources corresponding to liquid pure fuel imports. Its vitality firm OMV in mid-December terminated its long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom due to a authorized dispute.
The cut-off of fuel can even have a major influence on neighbouring Moldova, which in mid-December launched a state of emergency within the vitality sector due to the uncertainty round Russian fuel transit.
The halt to Russian fuel flows by way of Ukraine is more likely to enhance European demand for pricier LNG, for which Asia can also be competing.
EU officers have been adamant that the bloc can dwell with out Russian pipeline provides, even when it means accepting costlier shipped fuel from elsewhere.
The European Fee stated on Tuesday it didn’t anticipate disruption. “European fuel infrastructure is versatile sufficient to supply fuel of non-Russian origin to central and jap Europe through various routes,” it stated. “It has been bolstered with vital new LNG import capacities since 2022.”
The Turkey pipeline nonetheless transporting Russian fuel to Europe contributes about 5 per cent of the EU’s imports. The US recently imposed sanctions on Gazprombank, the principle conduit for Russian vitality funds.
However to mitigate the influence of sanctions, Russian President Vladimir Putin in early December dropped a requirement for overseas patrons of Russian fuel to pay by way of the financial institution. International locations corresponding to Turkey and Hungary additionally stated they’ve obtained US exemptions from sanctions.
“The sanctions had beforehand added an additional layer of uncertainty over the destiny of Europe’s remaining Russian fuel provide as we enter the brand new 12 months, serving to to maintain fuel costs unstable,” stated Natasha Fielding, head of European fuel pricing at Argus Media, a pricing company. The US waiver meant that “patrons of Russian fuel delivered by way of the Turkish Stream pipeline may breathe a sigh of aid”, she stated.
Merchants aren’t ruling out a rise in Russian fuel flows into Europe sooner or later. European firms which are reeling from excessive fuel and vitality costs, forcing them to chop again manufacturing, would return to purchasing Russian fuel, which was inherently cheaper than LNG, one senior dealer stated.
“At some stage there will likely be a peace settlement . . . Folks will wish to finish the conflict, due to this fact they need to signal a peace settlement. One of many issues Russia will get is its capability to resupply” Europe with fuel, the dealer stated.
Whereas European governments could impose restrictions to forestall the continent from as soon as once more changing into over-reliant on Russian fuel, the dealer stated, “you’d anticipate to see some Russian fuel again in Europe, as a result of basically, geography has not modified”.
Further reporting by Andrew Bounds
